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Crowd simulation (indicative)

Crowd simulation plays how the crowd in one enclosure of your event site, or on the whole site, might leave through its exits, over time, on the layout you drew. It is an indicative model: it sits beside the static exit checks and never replaces them. Crowd simulation is in Beta, behind its own crowd beta flag.

Who can use it. Crowd simulation needs everything Events mode needs — the Pro plan or above and the events beta — and the separate crowd beta switched on for your workspace. It is off for everyone until we switch it on. Without it the button is simply not there, nothing about the crowd is drawn, saved or printed, and every other output of an event site is exactly as before. See Designing an outdoor event site.

What it is, and what it is not

The static check (capacity by density, exit width by the rate of passage, the escape time of the gov.uk guide's Table 4) stays the authority. The simulation adds time: where the crowd goes, which exits it uses, where it waits and when each part of the area empties, under assumptions you can see. Every figure it prints names its model and its basis. It never describes a layout as safe or compliant, never says a time meets or misses a limit, and never prints a simulated time against a limit.

The panel header always carries one line: "Indicative model of the layout and assumptions you entered. It does not replace the static capacity and exit checks, your Event Safety Management Plan or SAG review."

Opening it

On an event site, press 👥 Crowd simulation at the top of the sidebar's 11 · Analysis & Simulation — it is also on the ✅ Checks menu, after Vehicle sweep, and on the 🎪 Event menu, beside Attendance & demand. It opens a docked panel, not a dialog, so the plan stays in view while the timeline plays: on the right on a desktop, a side sheet on an iPad in landscape, and a bottom sheet you can pull up or down on an iPad in portrait. The panel has four tabs: Scenario · Results · Maps · Report.

The first time you open it on a design, a short explainer says what the maps mean, that a waiting crowd's density is a setting rather than a prediction, what the model leaves out, and why the flow time is usually longer than the static one. You can reopen it from the panel header.

The ready scenario

The panel opens on a scenario that is ready to run: Busiest zone · largest exit lost · Flow model. Press Run and you get a labelled result with no setup at all. Running it changes nothing in the design itself — its result is saved beside the design (see Saved results below) — and a scenario's settings are saved in the design only once you edit one. A scenario's name follows its settings — "Whole site · exits you blocked: 1 · Flow model" — until you type one of your own, which is kept; clear it to go back to the automatic name. Two scenarios with the same automatic name (a new scenario starts with the first one's settings) are numbered in list order, "… (1)" and "… (2)", in the picker, the copied summary, the CSV file names, the export dialog and the Event Safety Plan's headings alike.

Everything else sits in collapsed rows below it, defaults first:

Running

Run shows its progress ("Simulating 3:20 of about 6:00"), then the result, while the other two pre-movement cases fill in behind it ("computing…"); Stop the other cases keeps the result and marks the cases it stopped "cancelled". Cancel stops at once and keeps nothing: a cancelled run is never saved, and the scenario's earlier saved result stays as it was.

The results

The headline is named for exactly what the model shows: Time for the modelled population to leave through this enclosure's exits (downstream not modelled), or on a whole-site run Time for the modelled population to leave through the perimeter gates (beyond the site not modelled). It is never called an escape time or an evacuation time, because the model stops at the exits and does not show anyone reaching a place of reasonable safety.

Saved results

Every completed run by the design's owner or an editor is saved with the design automatically; there is no Save button. Reopen the design and its result is there, labelled "Saved result, run <date> (build <stamp>)", and the Event Safety Plan prints it without a re-run. Saving never touches the design itself: it makes no autosave, takes no editing pen and adds no undo step, so an editor can run a scenario while a colleague holds the pen.

The day profile

The Results tab also carries Crowd over the day (day profile): people on site, arrivals a minute and the entry queue, minute by minute over the gate window, with the busiest minute of arrivals, the peak entry queue and when it clears — at the end of its last queue, so a queue that empties between two arrival peaks, or a second wave after the peak, still counts, and a queue still there a day after the gates close "does not clear within a day of the gates closing", with how that was read, as a clear time is ("(minute by minute)", and on the piecewise-linear basis that basis too, since the static check beside it can still clear) — the holding area the peak needs, a chart and a CSV. Two clear times, each saying how it was read. The sidebar, the static check and the Event Safety Plan's movement section read the queue at the end of each hour, so they give the hour's end by which it is gone; the day profile gives the minute. For one design they can read "by the end of the first hour after the gates close (checked hour by hour)" and "57 min after the gates close (minute by minute)" — the same queue at two resolutions — and the panel, the day CSV and the day section of the report print both, the static check's beside the minute: "Static queue check: clears by the end of the first hour after the gates close (checked hour by hour)". The static check holds each hour's arrival rate constant, as the default arrival basis does, so on that basis the minute never falls after the hour's end it is checked by; on the piecewise-linear basis it can, and the minute figure then says so: "3 h 1 min after the gates close (minute by minute, with arrivals piecewise-linear within each hour; the static check holds each hour’s rate constant, so it can read earlier)". It is worked out from what the demand dialog already holds — the attendance, the gate window and the arrival curve — and the entry lanes you have drawn: the queue model's arithmetic at one-minute steps. So it needs no Run, is never saved and is never out of date.

The maps

The Maps tab shows one map on the plan at a time; every legend names its model, basis, grid and time window.

The density maps draw published reference lines at 2, 3, 4 and 5.4 persons per m². They are not limits, and the legend says so beside the capacity factor the capacity check uses (0.3 m² a person, 3.3 persons per m², standing).

A waiting crowd's density is your setting. In a model like this a queue packs to whatever limit the model has, so the queue density is an input: 3.3 persons per m² by default (the standing capacity factor's density), or 2, 4 or 5.4. Cells held at it are hatched "waiting crowd at the queue density you selected". Cells at 5.4 persons per m², the limit of the speed–density relation, get their own hatch: no result there is relied on.

The timeline

A playback bar at the bottom of the plan: restart, play and pause, a scrub slider, speeds of 1×, 2×, 5× and 10×, and a clock that reads T+mm:ss from the start. Marks on the track show each quarter of the people out and each enclosure's clearance. On the plan each exit is circled and labelled open, cleared, lost (the largest, taken out) or blocked (one you chose), and a gate you blocked inside the area is crossed out as "closed (yours)", in the Event Safety Plan's maps too. Only one player shows at a time: opening the crowd timeline pauses and hides the vehicle swept-path player. With reduce motion set on your device the bar opens paused; scrubbing always works. Playback is on the 2D plan in this release, and it needs a run from this session (a saved result keeps no timeline).

The crowd layer never appears in the project card thumbnail, in the planning PDF's plans, in DXF or in the sheet manager's outputs. Export PNG captures the canvas as you see it, so a PNG taken while the crowd layer is showing includes it.

In the Event Safety Plan

The Event Safety Plan export button opens a short options dialog first (it also holds the cover page's fields — see Schedules, reports & exports). With crowd simulation switched on it adds Include crowd simulation (remembered on this device) beside the security tick, which starts off every time the dialog opens. It lists what the PDF will contain and each scenario's state with its source — current from this session, current from a saved result (with its date), current with some maps not saved, out of date, or not run — and what the PDF will print for each. Nothing in the dialog runs a simulation unless you press its Run the N included scenarios button, which runs, one after another, each included scenario that is not current or lacks a placed map; the export button itself never runs one.

Verification

The Flow model is checked against analytic cases and against the published test cases a flow model can answer — from RiMEA 4.1.1, the IMO's evacuation-analysis guidelines (MSC.1/Circ.1533) and NIST Technical Note 1822 — at their full sizes. The tests written for models of individual people that a flow model cannot answer (stairs, demographics, assigned routes, counterflow) are listed as not applicable, with the reason, never left out. A test with a criterion only some passage rates can meet is run on those rates and listed as not applicable on the others. The whole site, blocked exits and the day profile have rows of their own: every perimeter gate opens the boundary, the whole-site population never exceeds the attendance, a blocked exit stays shut, and the day profile on the constant basis equals the hourly queue model at every hour boundary.

The results are reported in three groups, never as one count: implementation checks (the code does what the method says), behavioural verification (the model behaves as the tests expect) and validation against measured crowds, of which there is none yet. Headline counts use the behavioural group only. The summary prints as an appendix of every crowd section, with the engine version and build, and says in plain words that none of it is validation against measured crowds. Figures in its reasons are shown to at most 4 significant figures, as the crowd section's inputs are. It is not yet published as a page of its own.

What it leaves out

It supplements, and does not replace, the static capacity and exit-width calculations, a competent crowd-safety assessment, your Event Safety Management Plan or Safety Advisory Group review. Every figure names its basis; figures marked as our assumption have no published source.

What this release covers, and what comes later

This release covers one enclosure at a time or the whole site, emptying through its exits with the largest exit lost or the exits you block, on the Flow model, played on the 2D plan, with the maps, the results, the CSV, the day profile of arrivals and the entry queue, saved results and the Event Safety Plan section above. Planned next, in this order of work (no dates):

Sources

The speed–density relation is Weidmann's (1993): a free speed of 1.34 m/s and a jam density of 5.4 persons per m², whose flow peaks at about 1.225 persons per metre per second (73.5 a minute) at 1.75 persons per m² — our computation, and every derived figure is recomputed from the free speed in use. The pre-movement cases and the congestion speed follow RiMEA 4.1.1; the SFPE passage rate is quoted from the IMO guidelines; the Green Guide and gov.uk rates are those the exit check already uses. The numerical choices — the 1 m grid, the time step, the queue density, the clearance threshold and the route-choice damping — are ours, and so are the whole site's share of the attendance by capacity, the day profile's piecewise-linear arrival basis and its departure shape; the panel and the report badge them so. Each source, the page it was read on and how it may be reused is listed with the others under Sources and what is ours.

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